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Alolan Floatzel's Mafia Analysis Corner

Alolan Floatzel

chronic wow-reactor
🎇Contributor
Team Delta
Pokédex No.
40
Caught
Jun 12, 2019
Messages
90
Location
New York, NY or Toronto, ON
Nature
Gentle
Pronouns
He/Him
Pokémon Type
Water, Cute
Pokédex Entry
[is baby]
with mafia being brought back i thought it might be a cool idea to do a little postgame writeup of each game as it finishes. i figure this can be a good way to not only hone my own skills but also serve as a resource for new players to get a more in depth look at what's going on in each game. i don't think it's possible for me to touch on exactly everything that goes on in every game, but i will talk about things that come up for me as the games progress

so that being said let's go

Host: CasualGameFreak
Victor: Village, Third Party (Shadow)
Link

ok let's talk about this because there are a few pretty major takeaways here

first of all, regarding the claim process - while having sonic as the crier/viral target claim and quickly organizing before viral kills him is not necessarily the worst idea, it's definitely not the most viable. here i see a knuckles leader being the objectively best option if not only because - and i'm kind of surprised no one brought this up - withholding sonic from the viral makes it possible to get info from them after village has been organized. it's also probably not realistic to think that village can organize under sonic that quickly, either, so having that extra breathing room by organizing under someone else is invaluable. while sonic is more easily verifiable, it's not exactly the greatest idea for mafia to throw out a cc that can easily die after the matter is cleared up.

but then knuckles fucking died after so whatever

i do wanna talk a little about this post - i feel like kra overhypes the amount of threat that shadow actually poses to village and ignores how shadow could actually even be an asset. at this point sonic is still a bad claim because of the lower amount of time village has to organize and for viral reasons, but if you play around it correctly the viral doesn't have to be a thorn in the village's side (especially if their target isn't a particularly useful role like sonic was). i would gladly trade my crier for a couple of investigations if it came down to it. edit: me realizing that kra was actually shadow changes my perspective on this post, but i think the point still stands in general for when people freakout about virals.

anyways. let's go over fractale's village leadership. him becoming the "clear" was a pretty interesting turn of events, and i actually think village was pretty smart in taking the calculated risk of claiming to him. however, uh. let's let this all be a teaching moment, because this is where things got messy really quickly as i'm sure most of us watching the game are aware. fractale was... a very haphazard leader, and i would probably say in order to be more effective next time he should think things through before posting, organize his thoughts a little better, and not make all of his points in a bunch of separate posts. stream of consciousness is only fun when you put it all in one post like tsubasa does, otherwise it's just kind of annoying to follow. at least make one post and you can edit it later or something lol. a good talking point here also is making your points as clear as possible to the village; i feel like a lot of time was wasted just trying to figure out what the heck fractale was trying to say. not only did that make it just more difficult for village in general, but it also allowed for mafs like zoro to jump in on the discussion and get free contribution points. even if english isn't your first language, like i'm pretty sure is the case with fractale, there should be some care taken in the way you present your game plan as village leader.

i'll digress on that for now, though, because i wanna touch on fractale revealing all the ccs. now i'm not gonna say this was a GOOD move to make - obviously there are benefits to keeping your prs' identities in the dark - but the entire time this was happening and people were freaking out i kept thinking about how a very common misconception is that having your prs out in the open spells certain doom for the village, and the inaccuracy of that mindset was put on full display here. in this game specifically, since both of the prs outed had ccs, the death of a pr meant the confirmation of a mafia. of course, as tsubasa lays out, they could only afford one mislynch, but through discussion it's still possible for them to be a bit aggressive with the lynches here, and as we can see from the game outcome, clearly it worked. so i dunno, i think the point i'm trying to make here is that fool and fractale and whoever else was involved in getting all the names out there shouldn't be put too much at fault.

uhh what else

zaazaa's scumhunting was pretty on point throughout the whole game, i especially liked his points about fluff and maf inexperience
tsubasa's shadow cc was amazing
booooo rosalia inactiving

and i think thats about it

overall a good game for the first xenforo nuzmaf game, nothing too crazy but still had some fun things in it happen that kept it interesting. most of the people involved i'd say played generally well.

also, i started keeping a log of maf games played on here if anyone wants to see that:
 
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Alolan Floatzel

chronic wow-reactor
🎇Contributor
Team Delta
Pokédex No.
40
Caught
Jun 12, 2019
Messages
90
Location
New York, NY or Toronto, ON
Nature
Gentle
Pronouns
He/Him
Pokémon Type
Water, Cute
Pokédex Entry
[is baby]
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #2
Host: Alolan Floatzel
Victor: Village, Zuko (Amnesiac)
Link

what a game this was honestly

let's talk about the setup first, because i feel like one of the challenges of creating a mafia game is that it's difficult to know how balanced your setup is until you're already elbow deep in the game. and since i hosted this game, i won't feel bad about putting stuff on blast.

first, hama was a bad idea. autocrat is already kind of a bad role to have, since it's impossible for them to work with the mafia and the village wants them dead even more than they want the mafia dead, so it's almost always necessary to give them a buff in order to help them achieve their wincon. for some reason i thought a disruptive action like vent would make things interesting, but then i forgot that autocrat doesn't really have anything to gain from disrupting village organization (since village being organized is in their best interest), so that basically... well... made hama an even shittier autocrat than normal autocrat. so i kinda really fucked up on that one, and apologies again to casual for giving you such an awful role, but hey you died pretty early so i guess it's ok. all in the spirit of experimentation i guess.

second, this game was definitely skewed in favour of village and if plusle hadn't double bussed and sent everyone in a wild goose chase village definitely would have won a lot earlier. this mostly had to do with aang; as was discussed in the discord, watcher is a sneakily powerful role, veteran makes it so that mafia probably won't be able to rest easy unless they give someone up, and vig is... well it's vig, which basically always needs a nerf to balance it, and definitely wasn't nerfed enough by the time delay i put on it. there was also the issue of the avatar state, which never came up in the game, but also shifted things even more towards village if it was a thing they could've had. the main thing, though, i think, is that i underestimated how difficult it became for mafia to strategize around a role that had that many options. especially towards the endgame, i saw how many avenues village could've had to catching plusle in his lie and just how much of a minefield plusle was playing against. given that aang is aang and he's supposed to be the avatar and all powerful or whatever i wanted to do something a little more creative for his role rather than being boring and just making him, like, a mimic or whatever, but definitely balance before flavour and definitely the role could've been refined or more countermeasures put against him. maybe if the mafia had a way to reveal him early on or some kind of way to pacify him early that could've helped. the numbers were also kind awkward too tbh lmao. but i digress, the game was good and it played out well so i really can't complain.

so what's kinda interesting about the start of this game is that mafia might have shot themselves in the foot right away by killing a pr n1, since that opened an opportunity for zuko to jump right into the village side. hobo could have even been persuaded to join mafia after matte was lynched as well - i honestly don't know if there was any concrete reasoning for hobo joining village other than him just wanting to pick a side immediately and also maybe seeing that village was already stacked - so mafia killing a regular villager instead very reasonably could have gotten rid of zuko as a liability right off the bat. kinda just unfortunate, in the end.

sozin's comet was quite fun for me to watch just because of how well mafia danced around village. even with all of the options that aang had as i talked about earlier, they managed to successfully predict what aang's most likely action was and take a course of action to fish for other prs instead of trying to off village leader right away and risk being watched. using mai's shot to not have to worry about toph's bulletproofing later was also a very clever move on their part, as well. huge props to mafia for how they played during sozin's comet, it truly was a delicate dance that ended up working out very well for them.

after this point is where things kinda descend into chaos, but before getting into that i'd like to point out that zaazaa's actions this game are an excellent example of how to play villager. cirr, a village clear, implied that zaazaa could be a pr; zaazaa, not actually being a pr and not having been contacted beforehand, immediately interpreted that as a deception tactic, and with the knowledge that it was coming from a village clear, ran along with it knowing that doing so would be disruptive to mafia and thus in village's best interest. i feel like there are a lot of players who would not only react in a confused manner to this, but would even go so far as to dispute cirr's leadership. on the other hand, by applying some critical thinking, zaazaa not only managed to advance the game considerably for village, but also managed to all but confirm himself as village to the prs, solidifying himself as trustworthy. sometimes all it takes is thinking about WHY someone is saying something blatantly strange instead of just immediately calling it out. doing so can greatly help your side.

let's tackle the rest of this now, i feel like the rest of it is fairly straightforward since it's mostly village floundering after plusle did the double bus. that plusle still lost here is probably a good reason why he became so easy to believe: putting yourself at such a significant numbers disadvantage is rarely a risk that mafia ever wants to take, especially when it leaves them with one man standing. it's simple, if mafia wants to win after gutting themselves to one, that means they have to take it to a 2/1 first, which essentially gives them a 50/50 shot at winning, since hopefully by then village will have noticed that something is a little off. this is a scumhunting lesson: plusle skated by after putting both seyuu and kra out in the open because it simply isn't logical for mafia to take a risk on something that would put them at such a huge disadvantage.

so now we're coming up on the final night of the game, and here's where my analysis of the game was a bit mistaken. it was at this point that i saw the most obvious move for plusle to make as killing mouse, and then ccing aang if it came out that mouse had been watched. i knew fool would have been easy to sway into voting for second, so i thought plusle could've won by using that avenue. however, plusle brought up to me that he was operating taking into account that the village had brought up using the vig on fool, which if they had done so it would've been brought to a scenario where village won on account of him being able to get shot at night. this is actually really funny because i feel like that is the move plusle would have made if it hadnt come out that second was considering shooting fool. so in a way plusle being seen as super innocent backfired on him anyways. lol

i'm telling you, the accidental double bus was not good for mafia! press f to pay respects!

something something tea memes

oh and shoutout to @MouseWithADinosaurTail for playing a real good first game, i know it got stressful at the end but that's what makes it fun!
 
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Alolan Floatzel

chronic wow-reactor
🎇Contributor
Team Delta
Pokédex No.
40
Caught
Jun 12, 2019
Messages
90
Location
New York, NY or Toronto, ON
Nature
Gentle
Pronouns
He/Him
Pokémon Type
Water, Cute
Pokédex Entry
[is baby]
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #3
Host: Second
Victor: Village
Link

i typed up a behemoth in the last analysis and i don't really have much to say about this game that second hasn't already said so this one will be kept pretty short

so uhh, yeah. mafia needs to be able to kill, there isn't really any way around that. having arsonist maf is a fun idea in concept, but it's difficult to balance since mafia not being able to kill is really such a HUGE nerf. i honestly think it maybe could have worked better if the setup was all villagers with one arsonist and some goons, but even then i dunno. it would take a lot to make it balanced although i guess the point here wasn't exactly to be balanced so whatever

never lynching as a viable strategy coming up for the first time ever was super funny yes

don't just random pick your n1 targets, they deserve to be given thought too

watcher is a good role

second u really tried your best and i appreciate you

das it
 

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